Large-cap stocks surged strongly, driving the rally in Vietnam’s stock market and pushing the VN30 index above 2,000 points for the first time. Despite the global financial market’s turbulence late last week, Vietnam’s stock market had a booming trading session, setting multiple new records. After opening in the red, the VN-Index rebounded nearly 18 points to close at its all-time high, above 1,765 points.
Large-cap stocks played a leading role, with major gainers such as VIC, TCB, VJC, HDB, and VRE driving the market upward. The VN30 index closed up nearly 32 points, surpassing 2,012 points. This marks the first time this key stock index has exceeded the 2,000-point milestone.
Since FTSE Russell announced Vietnam’s upgrade to a Secondary Emerging Market in the early hours of October 8, the stock market has risen for four consecutive sessions. This reflects investors’ strong optimism about the market’s outlook following this milestone decision.
According to a recent report, J.P. Morgan stated that FTSE Russell’s reclassification will pave the way for a significant inflow of passive capital into Vietnam. J.P. Morgan estimates that global index funds could inject around USD 1.3 billion into the Vietnamese stock market, representing a weighting of 0.34% in the FTSE Emerging Market All Cap Index.
Based on the current market capitalization, about 22 Vietnamese stocks could be added to this index’s portfolio. The stocks expected to attract the most foreign inflows are blue chips with available foreign ownership limits, with the Vingroup group at the center of attention. In addition, other stocks such as MSN, VJC, GEX, and major securities firms are also anticipated to be included in the FTSE Emerging Index.
On that basis, J.P. Morgan has raised its 12-month target for the VN-Index to 2,000 points under the base-case scenario and 2,200 points under the optimistic scenario — representing an upside of 20–30% from current levels. A solid macroeconomic foundation and strong corporate earnings growth are identified as the two key factors supporting this positive market outlook.
According to J.P. Morgan, Vietnam’s GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while the earnings of listed companies are expected to increase by an average of 20% per year during 2026–2027. In addition, if the country’s MSCI market upgrade process progresses smoothly, the market could enjoy an additional 10% revaluation upside driven by higher P/E multiples.
J.P. Morgan also noted that the current valuation of the VN-Index remains reasonable. The index is projected to trade at a forward P/E ratio of 15–16.5x over the next 12 months — higher than the ASEAN average but still below the two historical peaks of 2018 and 2021. This reflects investors’ long-term confidence in Vietnam’s economic growth and the improving profitability of Vietnamese enterprises.
Sharing the same view and speaking at the recent Investor Day event, Mr. Le Anh Tuan – CEO of Dragon Capital, stated that double-digit GDP growth will positively impact the stock market. “When GDP growth is double-digit, the growth of the stock market will no longer be measured in percentage points but in multiples. At the VN-Index level of 1,700 points, the current P/E valuation is around 12.5–13 times, while the profit for 2026 is expected to increase by 18–20%. I believe the Vietnamese stock market is standing before a new opportunity, despite having increased relatively strongly recently,” Mr. Tuan emphasized. With an increasingly solid macroeconomic foundation and lessons learned from preceding markets, the CEO of Dragon Capital is confident that if Vietnam maintains its double-digit growth momentum, the stock market can fully enter a new growth cycle, not only expanding in size but also enhancing its quality, depth, and competitiveness on the global financial map.
Similarly, a recent report by NH Securities (NHSV) also suggested that the market upgrade is a major turning point, opening up numerous growth opportunities for the Vietnamese stock market. This is a stepping stone for the Vietnamese stock market to integrate with the world. After being upgraded by FTSE Russell, ETF capital flows into the market are expected to reach around $1.4 billion, along with a significantly larger amount of active capital, potentially reaching $4-5 billion. Furthermore, NHSV assesses that the IPO wave will be a highlight in 2025–2026. Domestic investors are expected to continue playing the role of the market’s main support, while large-scale listings such as TCBS, VPS, and Gelex Infrastructure reflect the renewed confidence of the corporate sector.