This morning (February 24), the State Bank of Vietnam listed the central exchange rate at 24,646 VND/USD. The reference rate at the Exchange was 25,828 VND/USD for selling, marking a historic high. Since the beginning of the year, the State Bank has raised the selling price of the USD three consecutive times.
Continuous Increase in Intervention USD Selling Price
Since February 11, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has raised the USD selling price for the first time since late October 2024, increasing it by 248 VND from 25,450 VND/USD to 25,698 VND/USD. On February 13, the reference rate at the Exchange rose by an additional 23 VND to 25,750 VND/USD.
This morning, the SBV listed the central exchange rate at 24,646 VND/USD, while the reference selling rate at the Exchange reached 25,828 VND/USD—its highest level in history. Thus, since early February, the SBV has raised the USD selling price by a total of 130 VND. Analysts believe that the SBV’s move to increase the intervention selling price aims to ease pressure on foreign exchange reserves after selling more than 9 billion USD in 2024.
Today, the USD exchange rate showed mixed movements among commercial banks.
Specifically, Vietcombank, Techcombank, Eximbank, and VPBank simultaneously lowered their buying and selling rates by an average of 5 to 40 VND per USD compared to last week’s closing session. Currently, the buying price at these banks ranges from 24,285 to 25,330 VND/USD, while the selling price is between 25,650 and 25,670 VND/USD. Meanwhile, BIDV increased its buying and selling rates by 45 VND per USD, raising the exchange rate to 25,350 – 25,710 VND/USD.
VietinBank, however, made opposite adjustments, increasing the buying rate by 118 VND while lowering the selling rate by 102 VND, setting the exchange rate at 25,308 – 25,668 VND/USD.
On the free market, the USD exchange rate rose by 20 VND per USD compared to the previous session, currently trading at 25,670 – 25,770 VND/USD.
Since the Lunar New Year, the USD has been fluctuating rapidly and continuously, prompting the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to inject net liquidity into the market through open market operations. On February 13, the SBV injected 11,367 billion VND into the market via a 14-day term while withdrawing 5,000 billion VND through a 7-day term.
For the first time, the interest rate on withdrawn funds slightly decreased to 3.97% per year, while the injection rate remained at 4% per year. The average VND interbank rate also dropped by 0.02 – 0.27% across terms under six months. Currently, VND interest rates are roughly equal to USD rates, ranging from 4.36% to 4.55% per year—contrasting with previous periods when VND rates were typically lower than USD rates. This shift has helped ease pressure on the exchange rate.
How to Respond to Exchange Rate Fluctuations?
The USD exchange rate continues to face challenges as the ongoing trade war may further support the strength of the dollar in the near future.
Associate Professor Dr. Nguyễn Hữu Huân from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City stated that if U.S. inflation rises and the Federal Reserve (Fed) refrains from cutting interest rates while Vietnam lowers its rates, the exchange rate pressure will intensify. With the Fed’s more cautious stance on rate cuts, combined with uncertainties related to tariffs and China, the USD exchange rate is likely to maintain an upward trend in 2025.
To mitigate exchange rate pressure, Dr. Huân suggested that regulators could manage the monetary market as they did in 2024. This includes utilizing open market operations to gradually increase interest rates, implementing policies to support exports, taking advantage of the U.S. imposing high tariffs on other markets, and continuing investment environment reforms to attract foreign capital inflows, thereby boosting foreign exchange reserves in Vietnam.
Financial expert Nguyễn Trí Hiếu emphasized that to cope with strong USD exchange rate fluctuations, the key measure is to regulate the monetary market to maintain VND interest rates at relatively high levels. In other words, Vietnam should gradually shift from an easing to a tightening monetary policy while providing financial support for key sectors or projects to simultaneously foster economic growth and stabilize both the exchange rate and the monetary market.
According to Rong Viet Securities (VDSC), the exchange rate could reach 26,200 VND/USD by the end of the year if macroeconomic conditions unfold as expected. However, several positive factors could support the VND, including a strong trade surplus, robust FDI disbursement, and a recovering tourism sector. The stability and improvement of macroeconomic conditions will serve as a foundation for exchange rate stability throughout the year.